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I am posting this not to scare you, but to make you think seriously. As you all know I went through Katrina last year, and yes very worst case scenrios do occur. Below is from the world health organization may 23 on cluster of bird flu in indonesia that killed 85% of those it infected. Time to plan on food, basic supplies, and etc. This thing in its current form is lethal and is not easily transmittable but if you are in a room with someone who has it while caring for them you can get it easily.

goose my friend I worry about you and your health on this one have a plan to take care of yourself on this one. We were talking about it today could you imagine this bug going through a hospital, nursing home, or hurricane evac shelter.
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Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 14

23 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 32-year-old man. He developed symptoms on 15 May and died on 22 May.

The case is part of a family cluster in the Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra. The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. An additional person, who was the first member of the family to fall ill, died of respiratory disease on 4 May. No specimens were taken prior to her burial and the cause of her death cannot be determined. However, as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection, epidemiologists at the outbreak site include this woman as the initial case in the cluster.

The newly confirmed case is a brother of the initial case. Specimens were taken on 21 May and flown the same day to Jakarta. Tests run overnight confirmed his infection. His 10-year-old son died of H5N1 infection on 13 May. The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection.

Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman’s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.

All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.

Both the Ministry of Health and WHO are concerned about the situation in Kubu Sembelang and have intensified investigation and response activities. Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community. To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.

Analysis of viruses

Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

The human viruses from this cluster are genetically similar to viruses isolated from poultry in North Sumatra during a previous outbreak.

If I heard correctly this morning it has killed 25 people since 2003. I'll worry about the drive to work instead, while putting this in the swine flu, SARS, pile of this years media panic.

A 45 has a muzzle.
A 9mm has a bullet vent.

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The only time you have too much fuel is when you're on fire.

the issue to have a plan. It is building and it is evolving this last cluster had a 85% kill in that family. as a virus this is a very good killer. Note also it is in a radical muslim country were someone might be induced to make him or herself into sucide carrier. No it is not a pandemic and God willing it never will be but this thing is lethal.

Matt,

I'm not saying we shouldn't be prepared, but this is a bit different.

I was in Jakarta a few months after HN51 broke and I was well briefed before I left and when we got in-country.

The fatalities in Indonesia (and Turkey) were amongst folk who lived in close proximity to the poultry, and I mean close. They literally sleep in the same room. The kids play with live and dead birds, holding them up to their faces and therefore inhaling massive ammounts of dust.

So far there has been NO instances of human to human tranmission of the virus. All clusters have been within the same family living in the same conditions. The dad didn't get it from his son, he got it when he was shoveling up piles of bird shit from his living room. In fact that was probably the same room he was caring for his son in.

This is a fairly typical picture of how the poorer folk (that's most of them) live. They ain't going to have loads of spare rooms to segragate the afflicted...

<img src="http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i277/44hollowpoint/Jakarta.jpg" border=0>

Yes the kill rate is 85% (up there with Ebola) but it's still very hard work to catch it as you said in your post.

If it mutates with a flu virus then that's a whole different world of shit that's coming our way and I've no problem with being prepared for that.

You're born, you keep your head down and you die. If you're lucky...

I know not paniking you just have an idea what you would do. THe feds are a mess. The biggest threat in its current format is in close proximity living arrangements like you said. The biggest problem for us in healthcare is nursing homes, homeless shelters, jails, airplanes, hospitals, and yes schools. I would imagin as this thing begins to ramp up we are are going to see a lot more emphasis placed on keeping people with the cough at home or wearing masks at work or confined spaces. That situation alone will have a great psychological and economic effect.

If this thing had been in the super dome during katrina could you imagin what a mess it would have been.

Matt, thanks Bro for the Worrying but I'm "Well Prepared"

Not that I'm turning into a "Surivialist" or anything like that but,Natural disasters happen and right now in Ill there's been a Mass MUMPS out break for the last few months.
Gee, I wonder how that came here????????
Anyway We're stocked-up and have back-ups so "Santa Goose" will be fine at the North Pond and anyone who tries to steal "Christmas" from his workshop will get more "THAN COAL"in their socks<img src=icon_smile_wink.gif border=0 align=middle>

I believe even if it hasnt transformed yet, it will naturally or Someone "Will make it happen"
TOO MUCH MONEY TO BE MADE, and other things.Or as a BIO WEAPON.

But its just better to be "Safe" than sorry.

Goose

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
Benjamin Franklin,
(1706 - 1790)

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\"Live Free Or Die\"

yes the mumps lol

Gotta love it. How is the out break going up there. It has not come here but last I heard 600 plus infected is that right.

Matt